Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53878b86386dcb35738815a2510fca536554960b706ef965991d9a5073340a1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 744.4$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 167 | 95.8%160 W · 7 L | +62.3wins | +0.37per pick | 58cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 86+0.32 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 16c | 696.77$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.45 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 11c | 622.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 13c | 592.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 55c | 501.13$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 69c | 416.4$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.06 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 406.71$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.54 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 244.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 5c | 216.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 26c | 196$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 195.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 68c | 179.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 148.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 10c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 137.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 136.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 69c | 129.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 42c | 117.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 60c | 103.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 66c | 97.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 18c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 78c | 78.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 72.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 70.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 76c | 65.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 50c | 64.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 880 | 48%422 W · 458 L | +41.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 57.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 22c | 49.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 49.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 36c | 41.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 39.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 36.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 54c | 20.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.