Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf50550db20c32c905496a0d6cec19dfd7eba73ca5e99555e9bf4f3b5a66133a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 31c | 649$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 465.22$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 398.49$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.23 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 52c | 389.94$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 327.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 11c | 299.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 11c | 266.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.67 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 28c | 265$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 249.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 8c | 192.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.52 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 20c | 191.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 33c | 181.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 26c | 171$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.44 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 166.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 155$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 149.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 142.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 142.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 15c | 141.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.98 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 138.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 137.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 135.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 119.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 27c | 112.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 109$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 108.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 58c | 106$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 102.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 91.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 86.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 64c | 78.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 30c | 72.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 71.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…9682backed Yes | 23c | 65.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 71c | 64.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 21c | 60.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 20c | 59.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 28c | 57.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 27c | 53.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 29c | 52.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 51.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 47.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 47.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 45.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 45.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 43.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 43c | 42.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 41.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 42c | 33.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 33.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 56c | 32.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 76c | 31.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 31.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 31.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 78c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 19.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 15.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…fe21backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.