Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f4e15765b4d52892296396bcca3951597628d2f3f9bfe8038593263f6ddb7da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 328.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 20c | 221.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 177.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 13c | 162.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 14c | 119.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 117.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 95.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 83.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 74.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 66.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 37c | 65.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 30c | 58.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 45.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…bab7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 38.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 39c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 69c | 36.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 32.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 41c | 31.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 71c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 60-61°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.