Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c35380383130823214863e71d10e097c2fd252eb8046cd0ba1ebc7c89b34ebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 50c | 288.55$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 271.43$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 36c | 257.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked Yes | 80c | 250.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 66c | 250$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.09 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 59c | 236.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 172.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 163.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 41c | 138.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 132.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 47c | 127.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 13c | 115.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 59c | 106.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 90.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 88.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 24c | 80.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 59c | 78.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 64c | 73.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Yes | 67c | 62.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 23c | 61.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 69c | 61.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 17c | 60.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 54c | 59.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 65c | 58.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 35c | 57.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 64c | 56.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 63c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…374fbacked Yes | 55c | 53.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 51c | 53.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 38c | 52.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed Yes | 53c | 51.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…7628backed No | 24c | 44.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 56c | 42.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…28c2backed No | 60c | 39.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 33c | 39.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 37.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 67c | 34.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…bcbcbacked Yes | 39c | 33.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…4ae1backed No | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 33.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 37c | 32.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…f2b1backed No | 62c | 31.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 78c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…782bbacked No | 61c | 24.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed Yes | 79c | 21.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…0e05backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 69c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fb…351abacked No | 55c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 70c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 60-61°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.