IPO · resolved market
Will Arxis’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f841c87de771610d3d1f055114a7fe0c93fddd22c398372777bde63cc05b39f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed No | 73c | 460.36$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 28c | 345$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Yes | 63c | 337.07$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 35c | 323.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…fdb6backed Yes | 39c | 281.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 224.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 34c | 201.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe47…25c9backed No | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…2a86backed Yes | 31c | 170.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…089fbacked No | 66c | 54.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…b0c4backed No | 65c | 43.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…df1bbacked No | 48c | 39.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3885…7ca3backed Yes | 40c | 38.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked No | 59c | 37.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…6c25backed Yes | 39c | 34.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arxis’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Arxis’s market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Arxis’s market cap be between $12B and $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Arxis’s market cap be greater than $13B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Arxis’s market cap be less than $10B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.