Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f928588a6ccc3d278f94772a798a9f40c700063e7282b54c741197a7fbbe125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d78…29a5backed Under | 54c | 1,091$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.3 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 1,320 | 38.6%510 W · 810 L | -66.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 52c | 541.54$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 2,178 | 53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L | +61.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 47c | 329.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.84 | 1,399 | 44.9%628 W · 771 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…ba59backed Under | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 45c | 263.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.1 | 1,182 | 44.8%530 W · 652 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 55c | 126.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 55c | 109.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 164 | 62.2%102 W · 62 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Under | 53c | 57.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 108 | 54.6%59 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…9248backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 46c | 40.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 168 | 41.7%70 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009c…049bbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 619 | 46.5%288 W · 331 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…a02dbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?LGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendLGD Gaming won
- LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam WE won
- LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.