Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fcb0ef7e01279ee0b864264cd053f3619deeefe50c403e93b863c6af4a79e95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gauffof Gauff, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Muchova | 11c | 2,214$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.02 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Muchova | 12c | 1,864$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5434…2079backed Muchova | 53c | 948.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Gauff | 53c | 562.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.22 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Muchova | 4c | 477$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Muchova | 47c | 461.69$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…2f90backed Gauff | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f10…0cb9backed Muchova | 50c | 340.29$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…6bedbacked Gauff | 59c | 337.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Gauff | 71c | 256.97$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Gauff | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Gauff | 45c | 122.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Gauff | 52c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Muchova | 46c | 91.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gauff | 48c | 90.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…89cabacked Gauff | 54c | 75.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Muchova | 77c | 72.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 430 | 62.3%268 W · 162 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Muchova | 43c | 53.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Muchova | 25c | 40.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Muchova | 42c | 31.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Gauff | 64c | 26.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Muchova | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs Muchovathis page
- Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Open: Coco Gauff vs Karolina MuchovaCoco Gauff won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)Gauff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.