TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gauffof Muchova, Gauff
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,034 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd8e…f023backed Gauff78c5,920$4,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.1757249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Gauff72c2,078$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.571,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Muchova23c1,761$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.644,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Muchova23c1,754$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.71,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Gauff76c1,631$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39865157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e8…bfbbbacked Muchova29c1,382$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.644420.5%9 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Muchova27c1,306$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3471,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Muchova22c1,283$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.447,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Muchova20c997.26$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.512,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Muchova26c861$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.8932031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Gauff70c668.83$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6526545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Gauff75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10017262.8%108 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63df…36c4backed Gauff75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Muchova22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f63…848bbacked Gauff70c257.76$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Muchova27c114.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.959,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x855f…4954backed Gauff73c114.63$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9510570.5%74 W · 31 L+0.5wins0.00per pick70cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Muchova28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2817149.1%84 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Muchova26c79.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.572,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd571…d24abacked Muchova36c68.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520643.2%89 W · 117 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Muchova26c67.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.173,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbba3…89cabacked Gauff64c66.97$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.232245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Muchova25c62.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.727,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Muchova25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.89244.6%41 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Gauff72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1431650%158 W · 158 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7963…78a1backed Muchova34c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Gauff70c43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.97,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96f…2ab8backed Gauff76c15.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.755100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44aa…20e6backed Gauff73c13.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.