Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33619d0be5775f8cf992de7d13cc94ca7834e67d91da77da6ef555374a26440f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gauffof Muchova, Gauff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Gauff | 78c | 5,920$4,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.17 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Gauff | 72c | 2,078$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.57 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Muchova | 23c | 1,761$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.64 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Muchova | 23c | 1,754$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.7 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Gauff | 76c | 1,631$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…bfbbbacked Muchova | 29c | 1,382$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.64 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Muchova | 27c | 1,306$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Muchova | 22c | 1,283$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.44 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Muchova | 20c | 997.26$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Muchova | 26c | 861$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.89 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Gauff | 70c | 668.83$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.65 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Gauff | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…36c4backed Gauff | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Muchova | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…848bbacked Gauff | 70c | 257.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Muchova | 27c | 114.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Gauff | 73c | 114.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Muchova | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 171 | 49.1%84 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Muchova | 26c | 79.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Muchova | 36c | 68.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Muchova | 26c | 67.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…89cabacked Gauff | 64c | 66.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Muchova | 25c | 62.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Muchova | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Gauff | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Muchova | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gauff | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…2ab8backed Gauff | 76c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…20e6backed Gauff | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)this page
- Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Gauff vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Open: Coco Gauff vs Karolina MuchovaCoco Gauff won
- Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs MuchovaGauff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.