World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x301ffc850b0c3d5bbf8b9f95aeb616b35d43abb83a8566fc3c9f3bb3e39997b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 2,202$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.03 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 510.3$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.9 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 39c | 485$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 427.39$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.8 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f012backed Yes | 35c | 369.36$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 342.65$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 38c | 283.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.52 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 242.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.99 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 189.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.24 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 62c | 153.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 139.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 137.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 16c | 110.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed Yes | 37c | 79.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 60c | 66.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 66.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 80c | 62.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 62.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 37c | 55.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 53.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 53.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 65c | 50.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 38c | 47.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 46.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…9d52backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 71c | 42.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 39.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 66c | 38.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 56c | 35.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 33.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 37c | 32.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 31.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 29.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 28.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 74c | 16.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.