Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3031c50fa5311309d2ab2f8dc38799781a3db53dd1cfab3257534d4e593b9a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 3,744$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.82 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 2,948$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.02 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 2,426$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.71 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,281$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 988.5$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 24c | 783$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 22c | 650.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 15c | 559.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 76c | 495.79$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 23c | 287$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 250.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 15c | 237.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 71c | 179.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…86cebacked Yes | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1139…7bf4backed Yes | 25c | 146.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 21c | 141.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 78c | 104.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 23c | 98.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 15c | 97.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 22c | 96.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 21c | 90.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 86.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 15c | 85.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 67.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 78c | 62.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 26c | 60.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 76c | 55.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed No | 79c | 47.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 34.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 76c | 30.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 76c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 75c | 25.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86f…91f1backed No | 78c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 77c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.