Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7446f498188f433769f4de77984f6234e1b5d6ead2cdfe1db523c633e88fb27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 10c | 2,682$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.09 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 77c | 2,056$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 13c | 1,446$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.73 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 79c | 1,377$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.15 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 27c | 1,199$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.36 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 57c | 1,021$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.86 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 68c | 928.94$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.98 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 47c | 660.31$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 55c | 633.21$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.68 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 61c | 507.26$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Yes | 53c | 463.28$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked No | 10c | 444$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 16c | 439.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 55c | 432.34$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked No | 43c | 407.66$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 53c | 356.66$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 9c | 333.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 30c | 282.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 264.64$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked No | 47c | 246.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 27c | 223.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 43c | 201.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 8c | 200.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 44c | 181.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 51c | 180$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 45c | 166.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 53c | 155.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 49c | 148.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…9c4fbacked Yes | 54c | 133.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…7c83backed No | 47c | 132.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…979fbacked Yes | 54c | 129.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 73c | 129$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked No | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 52c | 106.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…e58fbacked No | 48c | 103.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 45c | 103.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 47c | 100.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 16c | 95.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…54c2backed Yes | 55c | 87.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Yes | 54c | 81.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 50c | 75.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Yes | 54c | 67.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 47c | 61.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 46c | 54.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 46c | 53.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Yes | 54c | 46.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 45.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Yes | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 26c | 44.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 24c | 42.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 46c | 41.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 44c | 41.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 45c | 36.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8064backed Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Yes | 54c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 40c | 30.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 47c | 27.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Yes | 54c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked Yes | 54c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Yes | 57c | 26.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed No | 50c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 45c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 56c | 21.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 58c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?No won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.