Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64f3fb949dd63fae4210fc002a63c4c045630da2be559f2a5545136b27f8c8d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 79c | 1,291$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.01 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 1,099$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.54 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 672.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.09 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 76c | 490.86$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 78c | 457.63$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes | 23c | 371.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 272.07$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 227.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 21c | 215$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…c789backed Yes | 46c | 211.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 21c | 201.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 78c | 157.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 151.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 27c | 106.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 106$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 16c | 97.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 89.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 76c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked No | 23c | 62.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.42per pick | 21cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 79c | 46.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…8af6backed No | 79c | 22.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.