Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30673aa0994e3bebb37699ee5b00c2b0616500ade10e895c4fb29f09a0f8e6e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Khachanovof Khachanov, Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,606 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Agut | 47c | 5,000$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.83 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Khachanov | 53c | 3,979$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.21 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Khachanov | 75c | 828.92$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Agut | 52c | 365.08$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Khachanov | 46c | 330.07$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Agut | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Khachanov | 58c | 168.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Khachanov | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Khachanov | 48c | 85.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Khachanov | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Khachanov | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Khachanov | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…2aa6backed Khachanov | 53c | 69.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Agut | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Khachanov | 48c | 42.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Khachanov | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Khachanov | 53c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Khachanov | 53c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)this page
- Agut vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Agut vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Karen KhachanovKaren Khachanov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.