UFC · resolved market
Kondratavicius vs. Barbir
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307b54e7c902b3b9c5eedb24b790c111528378ca59a8e10a4e33651ab3fc28de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kondrataviciusof Kondratavicius, Barbir
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Kondratavicius | 75c | 5,014$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.39 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Barbir | 57c | 2,947$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.96 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…7430backed Barbir | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Barbir | 58c | 1,300$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.04 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Barbir | 54c | 1,188$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.48 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kondratavicius | 42c | 1,141$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.57 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Kondratavicius | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Kondratavicius | 41c | 501.69$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Kondratavicius | 46c | 500.35$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.19 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Kondratavicius | 46c | 493.29$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.25 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Barbir | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Kondratavicius | 46c | 252.65$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Barbir | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Kondratavicius | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Kondratavicius | 35c | 162.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Barbir | 62c | 155.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Kondratavicius | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kondratavicius | 42c | 129.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Barbir | 58c | 104.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Barbir | 61c | 49.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kondratavicius vs. Barbirthis page
- Chaves vs. MontenegroChaves won
- Reyes vs. TorresReyes won
- Tobias vs. de OliveiraTobias won
- Zurcher vs. MagomedovMagomedov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.