UFC · resolved market
Zurcher vs. Magomedov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb947154897950243f5435e91aa52cade7180deabf67fbb3891dee426f4e3c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magomedovof Zurcher, Magomedov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Zurcher | 54c | 3,000$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Magomedov | 64c | 2,422$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.52 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Magomedov | 47c | 1,354$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Zurcher | 52c | 837.81$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.66 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Zurcher | 52c | 771.5$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.35 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Magomedov | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Magomedov | 48c | 577$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.04 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Magomedov | 48c | 181.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Magomedov | 52c | 112.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Magomedov | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Zurcher | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Zurcher | 63c | 74.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…a309backed Zurcher | 59c | 51.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed Magomedov | 46c | 36.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Magomedov | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed Zurcher | 68c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zurcher vs. Magomedovthis page
- Chaves vs. MontenegroChaves won
- Kondratavicius vs. BarbirKondratavicius won
- Reyes vs. TorresReyes won
- Tobias vs. de OliveiraTobias won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.