Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Mercer Bears (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309c52fab529c984db9333096d326f6179e448a09e833fff1e5cd0ce132f4d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chattanooga Mocsof Mercer Bears, Chattanooga Mocs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Chattanooga Mocs | 51c | 11,473$5,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,590.98 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Mercer Bears | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Mercer Bears | 49c | 3,602$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.82 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Mercer Bears | 49c | 3,050$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Chattanooga Mocs | 51c | 2,107$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.43 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Chattanooga Mocs | 51c | 1,543$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.93 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Chattanooga Mocs | 49c | 350$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Chattanooga Mocs | 51c | 279$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mercer Bears | 48c | 249.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mercer Bears | 49c | 244.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Chattanooga Mocs | 51c | 237.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Chattanooga Mocs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Chattanooga Mocs | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Chattanooga Mocs | 50c | 126.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Mercer Bears | 51c | 69.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…f81bbacked Mercer Bears | 49c | 61.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Mercer Bears | 51c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mercer Bears (-4.5)this page
- Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga MocsChattanooga Mocs won
- Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.