WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Sun
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c63a76a82140f350cf6469da8da798498fc4a546f017e647c291d2675a7872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Sun | 10c | 8,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…d2b9backed Sun | 8c | 3,340$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Sun | 10c | 2,778$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.84 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…8d19backed Sun | 8c | 1,090$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Sun | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sun | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sun | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sun | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ed…3cc4backed Sun | 7c | 454.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…5684backed Sun | 6c | 364.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Sun | 12c | 317$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Sun | 13c | 272$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Sun | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Sun | 11c | 131.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Sun | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sun | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Sun | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.