Tennis · resolved market
Schwaerzler vs. Piros: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30ce849cd5de5f0ef81a25deaf4a0b950cc678f08e2d4f4697a69afc1c12909e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Under | 49c | 23,001$11,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,270.41 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 51c | 18,700$9,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,163 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Over | 51c | 9,468$4,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,639.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 19c | 9,075$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.25 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 39c | 5,399$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.19 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked Over | 51c | 2,835$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…5143backed Under | 49c | 1,800$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…e7b3backed Over | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 71c | 316.32$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Under | 19c | 313$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 29c | 271.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…bff0backed Over | 51c | 225.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…e8abbacked Over | 51c | 179.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Under | 18c | 77.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…f9d8backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +88%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…6153backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Schwaerzler vs. Piros: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- Joel Schwaerzler vs. Zsombor Piros: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Lugano: Joel Schwaerzler vs Zsombor PirosZsombor Piros won
- Schwaerzler vs. Piros: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Schwaerzler vs. Piros: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Schwaerzler vs PirosPiros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.