South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30d07d2a564fc6be37ae6e270660c447f38829af766cc8496819b7bce0cf4bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 21c | 6,981$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 6,054$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.86 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 5,902$4,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.98 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 986.4$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.8 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 866$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa8…ebb4backed Yes | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…4965backed Yes | 26c | 585.85$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 78c | 527.16$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 497.61$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 435.84$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 374.74$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed Yes | 21c | 261.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 254.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 215.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 21c | 190.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 114.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 74c | 112$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 105.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…6ce1backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 78c | 67.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 28c | 62.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 70c | 19.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-02-25?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-02-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.