Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f854bb044a86e36fa5ba9d56f1aa9b1a18c6643d248ae5ddc0f647c248a6a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Saint Louis Billikens, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,079 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Saint Louis Billikens | 50c | 1,681$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.34 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 50c | 1,239$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.53 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Saint Louis Billikens | 48c | 517.25$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.82 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Saint Louis Billikens | 9c | 402.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Dayton Flyers | 52c | 374.81$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.91 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Dayton Flyers | 45c | 260.66$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 232.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 47c | 147.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Saint Louis Billikens | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 56c | 106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Saint Louis Billikens | 53c | 93.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Dayton Flyers | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 85.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 71.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 45c | 59.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Dayton Flyers | 52c | 54.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Dayton Flyers | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Dayton Flyers | 52c | 32.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Saint Louis Billikens | 50c | 26.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Saint Louis Billikens | 50c | 25.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…c172backed Dayton Flyers | 55c | 25.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 45c | 24.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Dayton Flyers | 57c | 20.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-5.5)this page
- Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis BillikensDayton Flyers won
- Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens: O/U 144.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens: O/U 145.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens: O/U 148.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens: O/U 150.5Under won
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-2.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-4.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-6.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.