TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Dayton Flyersof Saint Louis Billikens, Dayton Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,106 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Saint Louis Billikens44c2,222$989 inLost-$988.782,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa628…fa47backed Saint Louis Billikens46c1,961$902 inLost-$902.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Dayton Flyers56c1,112$623 inWon+$489.31,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked Dayton Flyers55c876.06$482 inWon+$394.234454.5%24 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae9…f51cbacked Dayton Flyers54c670$362 inWon+$308.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6f…2dd4backed Dayton Flyers54c650$351 inWon+$2991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f02…f633backed Dayton Flyers54c650$351 inWon+$2991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Dayton Flyers49c204.8$100 inWon+$104.451,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Saint Louis Billikens44c199.57$89 inLost-$88.8137246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Dayton Flyers55c180.24$99 inWon+$81.1133855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed Saint Louis Billikens49c101.15$50 inLost-$49.564042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Dayton Flyers56c88.52$50 inWon+$38.9514051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Saint Louis Billikens48c70.03$34 inLost-$33.9412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d94…954ebacked Dayton Flyers58c51.28$30 inWon+$21.542564%16 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5127…f137backed Dayton Flyers55c45.06$25 inWon+$20.286841.2%28 W · 40 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Dayton Flyers53c43$23 inWon+$20.213,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Saint Louis Billikens47c37.67$18 inLost-$17.75,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers53c29.98$16 inWon+$14.094,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.