NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31053b31572b56a394be5b77132418bb914353a9f138b62271fca8f89f4e4798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7f4…47cdbacked Over | 49c | 23,846$11,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,684.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29dd…6db4backed Under | 51c | 23,657$12,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,591.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…25afbacked Under | 51c | 23,340$11,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,436.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7c53backed Over | 49c | 23,148$11,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,344.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,792$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.22 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 2,632$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.84 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 46c | 2,005$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.36 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 924$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.51 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 47c | 630$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 53c | 29.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c0…071bbacked Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Sharks vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.