Cricket · resolved market
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31059ee994bf68bc06e7854bbacd1b2dc07da4cf9e1facd0d5ef67316bd7bb77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Punjab Kingsof Mumbai Indians, Punjab Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked Mumbai Indians | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Punjab Kings | 48c | 174.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…e3b7backed Punjab Kings | 50c | 165.57$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9c…2b9abacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 139.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…0a13backed Mumbai Indians | 15c | 136.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…7a05backed Punjab Kings | 50c | 131.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Punjab Kings | 41c | 108.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…84cebacked Punjab Kings | 52c | 106.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Punjab Kings | 51c | 104.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df3…c95cbacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…1ca6backed Mumbai Indians | 55c | 88.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8183…dd5bbacked Mumbai Indians | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b6…48ccbacked Punjab Kings | 52c | 72.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…e5bdbacked Punjab Kings | 49c | 64.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…8b07backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…1cc3backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…bca2backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…4f07backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 48.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41e…0bb7backed Punjab Kings | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…cc6ebacked Punjab Kings | 52c | 46.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…f863backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…1013backed Mumbai Indians | 48c | 39.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9a…b45bbacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 38.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…6260backed Mumbai Indians | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…b53bbacked Mumbai Indians | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c82…76eabacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 36.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…53cdbacked Punjab Kings | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…b0ecbacked Punjab Kings | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…7748backed Punjab Kings | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e3…f804backed Mumbai Indians | 52c | 27.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…5343backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…8749backed Mumbai Indians | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…1e3bbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…2d05backed Punjab Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…1eecbacked Punjab Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings - Who wins the toss?this page
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab KingsPunjab Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.