MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31325f502e4833c23d81290d96573d7c760f93add200e149406d103b17e9ecba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 8,669$4,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,031 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 5,981$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.14 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.9 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 34c | 731.19$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 656.92$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.16 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 581.9$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.72 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 46c | 547.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 409.49$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 36c | 398.11$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 65c | 103.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 35c | 97.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 95.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 91.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 77.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 60c | 73.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 66c | 57.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 64c | 53.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 47c | 44.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 54c | 32.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 50c | 29.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 66c | 26.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 54c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 55c | 23.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.