MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0a7558d3715d6cfcdee0d8f7cfae4c0a40ece21a53a14e8ca84b4d90fef266b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 53c | 5,319$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.07 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 49c | 4,156$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.56 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 2,192$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 1,604$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.3 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 48c | 1,510$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.2 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 52c | 1,510$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.2 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Over | 52c | 1,334$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.92 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 1,183$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,103$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 1,082$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 945$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.95 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 758.83$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 49c | 715$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.65 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 697.24$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.21 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 650.85$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 528.88$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.02 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 47c | 400$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 360$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 336.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 33c | 151.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 119$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 51c | 100.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 53c | 96.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 49c | 75.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…9ed5backed Under | 33c | 74.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Under | 33c | 74.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 48c | 70.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 49c | 67.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 49c | 55.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Under | 47c | 49.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…063dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 49c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 45c | 30.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93c…475ebacked Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Over | 66c | 17.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 16.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.