Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31528e841b10e92c3b8f1980e2cb5a2ce729df1d8f2f9284533842706fe29978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,049 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 475.16$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.14 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 279.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 35c | 181.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 25c | 156.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 153.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 128.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 16c | 127.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Yes | 36c | 112.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64d…58d2backed Yes | 25c | 112.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…c33bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 99.54$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 90.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…57b0backed Yes | 23c | 88.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…b769backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…f2b2backed Yes | 18c | 58.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 54.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…d01dbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 75c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed No | 77c | 21.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 78c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 15°C or below on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or higher on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.