Serie A · resolved market
Will Udinese vs. Cagliari end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31984c400d32ac17a0023d65195d6563234de41e1d5fc749ba62515f581f5fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 70c | 4,480$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.24 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 69c | 3,245$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.34 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 31c | 3,226$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 67c | 2,086$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.71 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 1,551$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.65 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 34c | 1,483$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 23c | 1,210$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.51 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 1,162$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.61 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 69c | 618.75$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 69c | 606.44$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.44 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 19c | 470.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 34c | 385.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 67c | 328.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…2accbacked Yes | 60c | 238.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 69c | 236.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.51 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…7e3fbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 68c | 87.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 31c | 57.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 70c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Udinese vs. Cagliari end in a draw?this page
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will Udinese win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.