Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e6d352d58c0f3cfd90b5ec0d89f4ec5354d9d4bce4aab7c3712e2628bc49413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 26c | 10,182$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.26 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 7,175$5,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.21 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 31c | 2,537$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.46 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 2,491$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.4 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 49c | 1,889$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +253%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 1,213$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed No | 75c | 770.31$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 9c | 679.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…fdcabacked Yes | 52c | 679.04$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 25c | 660$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 27c | 212$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 24c | 199.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 40c | 198$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 26c | 175.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 50c | 171.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 13c | 150.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 132.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 118.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed No | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…7e3fbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 74c | 83.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 50c | 40.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Udinese vs. Cagliari end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Udinese win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.