Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31b8571739c1d8519c0ef9b9ce5525b8cdcfcc500d41a482efd37442ce1e36a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 655.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 442.54$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 39c | 429.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.17 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 79c | 253.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 16c | 240.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 229$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 221.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 216.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 13c | 209.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.08 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 16c | 145.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 8c | 145.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 144.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…aca7backed No | 58c | 126.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 119.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 117.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 20c | 108.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 87.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 13c | 84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 31c | 79.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 36c | 77.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 72.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 55c | 40.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 37.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 31c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 42c | 32.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 70c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 79c | 18.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 76c | 15.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 78c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.