Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48f92eb07b500aad4e8ea6310ad9d1f04f08fa57f382f6108924b1af8f6694e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 77c | 722.19$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 50c | 302.14$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 42c | 201.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 32c | 139.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 136.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 116.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 25c | 113$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 98.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 45c | 97.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 43c | 92.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 31c | 83.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 78.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…9059backed No | 78c | 77.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 66c | 70.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 72c | 67.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 62.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 24c | 60.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 60.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 58.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 64c | 56.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 55.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 23c | 53.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 28c | 53.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 47.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 29c | 43.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 25c | 42.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 41.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 75c | 35.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 29c | 34.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 51c | 29.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 28.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24d…0dc2backed No | 74c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 25.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 24.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…d91dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 74c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 13.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.