Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aefe593ef0bbde0e53b8ae97d304fbd76f6f1398b2eb17a1b06e0ccdc9d9e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 0c | 11,432$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…dba6backed Yes | 0c | 10,009$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 2c | 1,042$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 31c | 593.47$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked No | 76c | 523.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed No | 79c | 432.57$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 17c | 328.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 68c | 232.62$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 185$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 159.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 26c | 154.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 52c | 152.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 149.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 137.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 42c | 127.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 123.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 51c | 118.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 108.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 54c | 106.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 52c | 96.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 95.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 43c | 95.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 93.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 85.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 34c | 84.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 82.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 49c | 81.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 70c | 77.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 64c | 73.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 69c | 72.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 64.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 44c | 62.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 61.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 60.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 57.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 56.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 55.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 56c | 49.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 49.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 29c | 49.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 46.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 46.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 59c | 42.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 37c | 40.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 38.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 36.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 35.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…f3c1backed Yes | 36c | 35.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 35.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 41c | 34.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 44c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 55c | 30.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4858…a5d9backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 52c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 42c | 26.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 22.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 67c | 22.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…daafbacked No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked No | 67c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 63c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.