Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31bfd5ae81c3f92f466e3c11169bda08a2801986668ade067a6be1b3e8dc54ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 16c | 384.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 353.63$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 291.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.01 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 286.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.39 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 278.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 269.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a2…5febbacked Yes | 52c | 260.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 62c | 235.51$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 153.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 123.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 109$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 51c | 100.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 73c | 98.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 51c | 96.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 48c | 91.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 41c | 62.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 27c | 62.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 58.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4536backed Yes | 55c | 55.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 59c | 54.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 54.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…fe15backed No | 49c | 49.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 60c | 47.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 70c | 44.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3f0ebacked Yes | 46c | 44.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 30c | 43.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 57c | 39.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 60c | 39.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 40c | 38.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…0269backed No | 56c | 38.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 64c | 33.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 56c | 29.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 41c | 29.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 64c | 29.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 58c | 29.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 62c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 70c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 78c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.