MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x323b6ff9d0408e473663758a94a5018c3f1f12ae29373b0be87776c8e61debb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $446,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $448,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf29b…dd4cbacked Athletics | 44c | 422,594$185,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185,268.74 | 380 | 43.4%165 W · 215 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 56c | 300,050$168,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132,022 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Royals | 57c | 50,000$28,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,500 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Royals | 56c | 25,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Royals | 56c | 15,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,600 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Royals | 57c | 12,222$6,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,255.46 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Royals | 56c | 7,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb31…cd36backed Athletics | 43c | 5,009$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.87 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Royals | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…eb4fbacked Royals | 57c | 3,812$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Royals | 57c | 3,720$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Royals | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 387 | 51.9%201 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Athletics | 6c | 1,918$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 462 | 39.6%183 W · 279 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Royals | 62c | 1,711$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.88 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Royals | 52c | 1,246$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.6 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 2c | 1,012$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Athletics | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…7693backed Athletics | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 7.1%6 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics | 18c | 952.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 1,456 | 42.7%622 W · 834 L | -39.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Athletics | 49c | 950.59$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.79 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Royals | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 57c | 868.68$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.9 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Athletics | 43c | 701.93$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.83 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals | 56c | 630$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Royals | 56c | 621.07$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.27 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Athletics | 2c | 550$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 585 | 2.1%12 W · 573 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Royals | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Athletics | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 75c | 458.46$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Athletics | 42c | 442.33$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.78 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Royals | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Athletics | 42c | 334.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +32.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Royals | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Royals | 52c | 279.21$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Athletics | 53c | 246.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Athletics | 44c | 225.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Athletics | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Royals | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…c7c9backed Athletics | 12c | 184$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 28c | 181.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Athletics | 8c | 167.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 315 | 47.3%149 W · 166 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Athletics | 44c | 166.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Athletics | 41c | 136.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Athletics | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bdc6backed Athletics | 52c | 97.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Athletics | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Athletics | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 331 | 40.2%133 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Athletics | 44c | 77.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Athletics | 39c | 65.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…3dbfbacked Royals | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed Royals | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Athletics | 51c | 59.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Athletics | 40c | 56.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Royals | 48c | 55.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…c6b6backed Athletics | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Royals | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Athletics | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 255 | 48.6%124 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…708cbacked Royals | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…25e3backed Athletics | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Athletics | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 543 | 52.3%284 W · 259 L | +27.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…7505backed Athletics | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 121 | 38%46 W · 75 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Athletics | 46c | 28.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.