Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 157.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325205b2c735c40bef19e2cd22e8514c3e044f67d34211478cd6c7dcfc8e146a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 3,283$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.48 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 1,163$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.77 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 549.01$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.05 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 404.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.57 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 370$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 278$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 45c | 103.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 77.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Under | 56c | 34.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 22.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Over | 44c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 67c | 20.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 120 | 34.2%41 W · 79 L | -13.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 157.5this page
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.