Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3253733852a40b8a8694191417fe6d28d76fa3a8bfcffe61357184b8241f49df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ee0…2dbbbacked Down | 44c | 8,000$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,519.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 67c | 3,400$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.61 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 56c | 3,071$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 72c | 2,236$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.12 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.99 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 66c | 1,775$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.54 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…ee4dbacked Down | 43c | 1,394$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 66c | 1,287$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.23 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Down | 29c | 841.45$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.54 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 57c | 777.85$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.37 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Up | 60c | 661$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.4 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 33c | 645.32$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…8022backed Up | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Up | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Up | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Up | 75c | 358.49$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Down | 16c | 233.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…df97backed Down | 20c | 217.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Down | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Up | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Down | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…0ea1backed Up | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…5daabacked Up | 63c | 199.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…c07ebacked Up | 75c | 198.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 23c | 175.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Down | 22c | 118.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Up | 70c | 118.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 74c | 110.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed Down | 22c | 104.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Up | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 21c | 98.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…e854backed Down | 20c | 80.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked Up | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Up | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Up | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Up | 66c | 49.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…1ae9backed Down | 34c | 48.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 76c | 43.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Up | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.