Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jordan Thompson vs Corentin Moutet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32738896496f1b717e3d43af834350405da226592082dcdae42180a01a9d9320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thompsonof Thompson, Moutet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Moutet | 45c | 4,250$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.46 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Thompson | 27c | 3,015$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.22 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…7260backed Moutet | 73c | 2,994$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Moutet | 22c | 1,438$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Moutet | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Moutet | 21c | 998.24$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.81 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Thompson | 60c | 869$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.35 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Thompson | 62c | 684$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.98 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Thompson | 29c | 599.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thompson | 57c | 599.25$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.86 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Thompson | 51c | 588.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.77 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Moutet | 71c | 580.98$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Moutet | 18c | 576.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Thompson | 67c | 534$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Moutet | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Thompson | 29c | 300$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.69 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Thompson | 27c | 298.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.87 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Thompson | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Moutet | 66c | 294.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Moutet | 28c | 286.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…693fbacked Moutet | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Moutet | 28c | 236.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Moutet | 21c | 230$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Moutet | 36c | 228$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Moutet | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Moutet | 37c | 142.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Moutet | 34c | 112.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thompson | 70c | 112$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Moutet | 22c | 106.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Moutet | 72c | 102.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Thompson | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Thompson | 62c | 90.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Moutet | 14c | 84.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Thompson | 66c | 82.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Thompson | 52c | 73.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Thompson | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Moutet | 33c | 48.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Moutet | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Thompson | 57c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Thompson | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.