Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax win on 2025-03-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327884f9a846ee354b7b43b57074c3db66c5dfc7c0d988b97276fd5a5ea46038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 75c | 6,144$4,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.77 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 78c | 5,078$3,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.39 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 22c | 4,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…b64dbacked Yes | 26c | 4,000$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked No | 75c | 3,042$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 17c | 2,214$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.5 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.99 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 23c | 852$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 763.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 25c | 560$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 80c | 535.45$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 79c | 506$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0560…d77dbacked Yes | 18c | 270.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…439bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 25c | 197$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Yes | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed Yes | 17c | 145.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…b5cbbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 24c | 123.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 116.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked No | 76c | 111.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…70f9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…2ae6backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 70.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 20c | 68.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…4258backed Yes | 24c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…f635backed Yes | 25c | 60.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 24c | 58.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…2251backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0349…66fcbacked No | 74c | 55.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd688…b771backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax win on 2025-03-13?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Ajax end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.