South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32804cd439c1bfca4c202fce84583e79a3c404f6c6991c23b68fdb2698372971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SE Palmeirasof SE Palmeiras, CS Cristal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe3…c693backed SE Palmeiras | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed CS Cristal | 60c | 2,122$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.2 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 1,409$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…19f9backed CS Cristal | 71c | 1,002$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SE Palmeiras | 54c | 584.11$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.47 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 578.79$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.37 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SE Palmeiras | 35c | 532.17$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.91 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed CS Cristal | 47c | 336.19$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed SE Palmeiras | 50c | 303.8$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed SE Palmeiras | 38c | 261.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CS Cristal | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed CS Cristal | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CS Cristal | 62c | 189.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CS Cristal | 63c | 182.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed CS Cristal | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CS Cristal | 61c | 126$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed CS Cristal | 62c | 125$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked SE Palmeiras | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed SE Palmeiras | 25c | 104.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed SE Palmeiras | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed CS Cristal | 60c | 65.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed CS Cristal | 65c | 63.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed SE Palmeiras | 74c | 63.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed CS Cristal | 64c | 54.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 53.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked SE Palmeiras | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed SE Palmeiras | 72c | 37.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed CS Cristal | 65c | 25.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed CS Cristal | 65c | 25.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed CS Cristal | 43c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed CS Cristal | 60c | 21.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed CS Cristal | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.