South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1549b4f18c127ba75daebe83e34495d6143b3c1255994e597bb51932b9222e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 4,832$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.83 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 42c | 4,350$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.72 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 3,839$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.65 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,740$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.76 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 50c | 714.89$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.01 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 704.25$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.04 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 51c | 659.94$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.37 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 49c | 585.47$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…556ebacked Over | 50c | 501.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 48c | 429.7$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.26 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 349.11$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 343.79$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 50c | 313.76$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 297.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.03 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 43c | 210.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…613ebacked Over | 35c | 194.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 48c | 156.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Under | 52c | 151.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 41c | 122.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…7a6dbacked Over | 49c | 78.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 50c | 71.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 37c | 70.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 49c | 69.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 63.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 51c | 62.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8740backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 61.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…f237backed Over | 49c | 57.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 53c | 54.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 34c | 45.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 48c | 45.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 53c | 44.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Under | 54c | 42.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 44c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c27…567abacked Under | 47c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 55c | 36.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Under | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 47c | 33.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 53c | 31.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 46c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…50e2backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…e1f5backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…d416backed Over | 49c | 27.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3630backed Over | 53c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…96aebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 70c | 19.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5this page
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.