Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Paul
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x328c5d9b2e16348f8bef650f4eedda7c7151d4be0654d6cd923d6140d768a09b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Tien | 40c | 2,490$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.63 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…8652backed Paul | 60c | 902.95$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Tien | 40c | 786.55$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.93 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…72a3backed Paul | 60c | 498$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…e8d3backed Paul | 60c | 252.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…8819backed Paul | 60c | 251.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…d9b2backed Paul | 59c | 250.85$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked Paul | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Paul | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Paul | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e495backed Paul | 60c | 249$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…1abdbacked Paul | 60c | 249$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…5ecfbacked Paul | 60c | 249$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tien | 40c | 211.41$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Paul | 46c | 187.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tien | 41c | 151.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Tien | 41c | 146$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Paul | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Paul | 35c | 113.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tien | 51c | 97.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…26adbacked Tien | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Tien | 40c | 40.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Paul | 39c | 38.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…1422backed Paul | 60c | 35.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Paul | 59c | 33.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Tien | 78c | 32.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 164 | 67.1%110 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tien | 61c | 25.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…886abacked Tien | 63c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Paulthis page
- Learner Tien vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Completed Match: Learner Tien vs Tommy PaulYes won
- National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy PaulLearner Tien won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Tien won
- Tien vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tien vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.