Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7edf84f208700c3af473a788f090d06320d99ab0f36268de3e417ac8a43ee2da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Paul, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Tien | 60c | 11,347$6,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,482.4 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Paul | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.99 | 183 | 48.1%88 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Paul | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.99 | 718 | 52.8%379 W · 339 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Paul | 38c | 1,114$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.98 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Paul | 37c | 1,100$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Tien | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Tien | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tien | 63c | 524.04$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.82 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Paul | 36c | 515.75$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.67 | 2,212 | 42.9%948 W · 1,264 L | +34.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tien | 65c | 375$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tien | 63c | 296.05$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Tien | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 441 | 51.9%229 W · 212 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Tien | 65c | 199.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Tien | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Paul | 36c | 134.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…6520backed Paul | 35c | 126.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f6…e834backed Tien | 65c | 124.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Tien | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 277 | 54.5%151 W · 126 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Tien | 62c | 108.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Tien | 62c | 106.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Tien | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 380 | 51.6%196 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Tien | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 930 | 55.9%520 W · 410 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Tien | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 273 | 57.9%158 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tien | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1,212 | 52%630 W · 582 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Tien | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 314 | 47.8%150 W · 164 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Paul | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tien | 66c | 68.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Tien | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Paul | 38c | 55.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Paul | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Tien | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed Tien | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Tien | 62c | 40.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Tien | 61c | 35.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 798 | 57.6%460 W · 338 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Paul | 37c | 31.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Tien | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Tien | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 481 | 51.6%248 W · 233 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Tien | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,013 | 53.8%545 W · 468 L | +35.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Tien | 63c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 677 | 45.6%309 W · 368 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Tien | 67c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…3a5abacked Tien | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)this page
- Learner Tien vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Completed Match: Learner Tien vs Tommy PaulYes won
- National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy PaulLearner Tien won
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs PaulTien won
- Tien vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tien vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.