Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32921f3bf29014143e7af808cc62d14895bb105bf9ccd52df10ff3bbc619b788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,884 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 8c | 314.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 52c | 230.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 48c | 197.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 8c | 174.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 171.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 69c | 151.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 65c | 147.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 112.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 107.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 105.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 103.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 100.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 38c | 90.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 69c | 85.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 85.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 85.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…6bf6backed Yes | 32c | 79.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 75.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 74.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 69.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 64.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 80c | 62.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 50c | 60.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 50.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89a…ad34backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 32c | 48.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 25c | 46.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 56c | 44.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 43.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 42.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 47c | 41.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…0fcebacked Yes | 72c | 38.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 58c | 38.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 42c | 35.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…8ce5backed Yes | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 27.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 23.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.