Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32bff8c9d21ae3bc1fad276d299c327efa971d792a866c6b7fd673ff8acde810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 857.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 425.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 379.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 355.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 12c | 317$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 4c | 281.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 22c | 280.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 13c | 255.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 255.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 27c | 240.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 23c | 215.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 8c | 204.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 78c | 191.43$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 12c | 181.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 9c | 178.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 76c | 127$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 79c | 126.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 121.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 117.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 104.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 103.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 94.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 89.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 82.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 20c | 60.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…9e36backed Yes | 22c | 49.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 48.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 29c | 39.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 39.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 76c | 37.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 35.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 34.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 69c | 27.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.