Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb938d68d907d6258f22a8184b22e2b62e85b02a3e9d5174a3cac2436e00071c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 4c | 3,525$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,206$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 988.92$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.12 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 701.16$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 662.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 506.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 5c | 483.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 3c | 414.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 342.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 298.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 288.65$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 47c | 263.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 254.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 235.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 213.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 53c | 213.51$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 212.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 185.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 6c | 184.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked No | 11c | 174.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 173$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 147.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 146$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 64c | 141.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 123.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 115$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 108.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 49c | 102.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 49c | 101.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 41c | 96.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 26c | 93.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 33c | 88.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 71c | 83.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 23c | 82.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 38c | 80.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 52c | 77.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 17c | 76.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 42c | 75.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 75.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 34c | 73.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 68.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 52c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 49c | 58.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 58.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 53c | 54.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 53c | 53.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 80c | 50.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 46c | 47.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 45.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 68c | 44.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 59c | 43.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Yes | 51c | 43.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 41.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 24c | 41.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 38.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 37.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 46c | 36.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…a4e8backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 55c | 34.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 55c | 32.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 30.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…ad74backed No | 57c | 29.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 29.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 60c | 28.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 28.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 28.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 37c | 27.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 69c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 47c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 53c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 54c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 19.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.