China Taiwan · resolved market
China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f62a8e8985c13404feee8ae4033ac026d9378957e3ae0102adadcd1634026d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38df…22fbbacked Yes | 2c | 36,852$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…9458backed Yes | 5c | 17,570$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 3c | 6,917$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 5,314$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,569$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…e05ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,983$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,447$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…7683backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…b52dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f2…b27abacked Yes | 3c | 914.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 902.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…a120backed Yes | 3c | 869.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 3c | 606.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…757fbacked Yes | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…63c0backed Yes | 4c | 572.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374c…57b0backed Yes | 3c | 516.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 3c | 499.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 3c | 448.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d0…b45bbacked Yes | 3c | 346.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 3c | 325.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ac…a533backed Yes | 4c | 313.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…f2a8backed Yes | 4c | 298.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.