NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32feb77344d5ecfbb4de1594f88a1d948bfdd1c730f77743a26dc9ba4c86f04b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hershey Bearsof Hershey Bears, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 1,420$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.2 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hershey Bears | 51c | 1,120$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.38 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Hershey Bears | 48c | 546$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.92 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Toronto Marlies | 51c | 196.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 187.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Hershey Bears | 51c | 152.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 151.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…44ffbacked Hershey Bears | 44c | 146$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Hershey Bears | 51c | 143$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Hershey Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Hershey Bears | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Toronto Marlies | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 46.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Toronto Marlies | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Hershey Bears | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…3415backed Toronto Marlies | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…5323backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Hershey Bears | 58c | 25.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Hershey Bears | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.