MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33083a12e80e7893cb244f63f691d5208802d0f36caf16cf7772e3e81a727ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 750.03$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 199$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 172.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 137.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 132.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 113.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 100.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 67.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 44.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 41.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…cacfbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 36.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…ab5dbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 30.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 28.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…f4f1backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…dc0bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…7310backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 24.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…6bc6backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…061cbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.