MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d58bb9348cb163d35fb42357185d351b3858065b68ba017b58dd7085cbfee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 55c | 2,639$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.33 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 1,738$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.18 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,339$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 55c | 1,295$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.68 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 47c | 708.71$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.09 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 45c | 683.89$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.75 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 548.07$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 45c | 440.1$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.05 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 369.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 55c | 275.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 164.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 139$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 52c | 91.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 74.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Over | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Under | 47c | 49.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 69c | 33.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Under | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 24.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 53c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 55c | 22.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.