Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3343350cf8682dee55429ab5f3135d33f1205d93f05ecc4340b93d5f8791fec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Estrela da Amadoraof Sporting CP, CF Estrela da Amadora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Sporting CP | 17c | 708.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Sporting CP | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sporting CP | 28c | 380.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Sporting CP | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sporting CP | 23c | 136.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sporting CP | 21c | 119.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 78c | 105.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 78c | 105.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 104.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 77c | 85.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 78c | 84.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 66c | 81.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sporting CP | 21c | 78.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)this page
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.