TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aidan Mayoof Aidan Mayo, Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin16c91,509$15,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,094.228,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c12,473$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.344,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin5c12,326$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.048,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin15c6,314$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.668,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin4c4,470$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.789737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c4,286$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.9848842%205 W · 283 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c3,736$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.4742341.4%175 W · 248 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin19c3,394$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.214,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c2,563$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.724,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c2,119$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.843,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin19c1,516$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.383,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin15c1,446$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.651,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1ce0backed Aidan Mayo79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0112467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin16c800$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12444442.3%188 W · 256 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbbe…ae0ebacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin28c785.19$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.852123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin13c488.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.432,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Aidan Mayo74c405.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5523738.8%92 W · 145 L+0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5637944.6%169 W · 210 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c400$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin15c400$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5978838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c357$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.687,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin13c342.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.511,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c320$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin15c300$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4664837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin10c233$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.26,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3092554.8%507 W · 418 L+15.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183b…b6e9backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin15c181.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.091323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1f…1e14backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin15c181.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.14845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0fd…3798backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin16c148.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7511618.1%21 W · 95 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin13c123.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1639451.8%204 W · 190 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd16f…9713backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209557.9%55 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Aidan Mayo78c24.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.