Tennis · resolved market
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x334cb9325bf5da33d3090de7e6142a45275dac133fec53c8566b74aad07e658b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aidan Mayoof Aidan Mayo, Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 16c | 91,509$15,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,094.22 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 12,473$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.34 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 5c | 12,326$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.04 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 15c | 6,314$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.66 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 4c | 4,470$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 4,286$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.98 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 3,736$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.47 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 19c | 3,394$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.21 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 2,563$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.72 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 2,119$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.84 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 19c | 1,516$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.38 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 15c | 1,446$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1ce0backed Aidan Mayo | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.01 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 16c | 800$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…ae0ebacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 28c | 785.19$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 13c | 488.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Aidan Mayo | 74c | 405.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 15c | 400$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 357$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 13c | 342.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 320$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 10c | 233$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 15c | 181.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 15c | 181.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…3798backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 16c | 148.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…9713backed Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Aidan Mayo | 78c | 24.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.